Our series of NFL Rookies to Watch focuses on later round rookies who have the potential to provide fantasy value on draft day. In the fourth instalment, we’re returning to the running backs with the Cincinnati Bengals’ 5th round selection, Chase Brown. If you’re interested in the previous articles in the series, you can find them here.
There’s definitely more obvious rookie running backs, such as Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, but they require a lot more draft capital to pick up. Chase Brown is behind Joe Mixon on the Bengals at this point in the off-season, but there’s no guarantees Mixon is on the roster come week one. If Brown can earn himself a role, he’s got the talent to be a valuable addition to any roster.
College Career
Canadian-born Chase Brown played high school football at St Stephen’s Episcopal in Bradenton, Florida alongside his twin brother Sydney. He had a phenomenal senior year, rushing 1,508 yards and 27 TDs to set the school career rushing record. Outside of football he also set the school’s 100 m record as well as winning a State Championship in the 4×100 m relay.
Despite his many accolades he was rated as a 3 star recruit and the 59th best running back in the nation. He committed to Western Michigan University and played in 13 games during his freshman season. Over the year he handled 71 carries for 345 yards and added 10 receptions for 75 yards. After the season he transferred to Illinois to play alongside his twin brother.
Brown got off to a slow start in Illinois, playing in just one game in his first season. But things picked up after that, in 2020 he turned 102 carries into 538 yards and three touchdowns. However, he was virtually non-existent in the passing game, earning just 64 receiving yards on 7 catches.
2021 saw Brown’s carry numbers increase again up to 170. He turned them into an excellent 1,009 yards and 5 touchdowns. His reception numbers remained low at 14, but he was very efficient with his opportunities turning them into 142 yards.
In his final season, Brown took on a true bell-cow role as he carried the ball 329 times in 12 games. He turned his opportunities into 1,632 at a very solid 5.0 ypc on top of scoring 10 touchdowns. His receiving opportunities increased nicely as well up to 27 receptions for 240 yards. On the down side he did have some issues with ball security, fumbling 5 times.
Brown ended his final season as the fourth leading rusher in college football and also earned the Jon Cornish trophy for the top Canadian player in NCAA football.
Combine in Numbers
Brown was invited to the scouting combine and tested very well. He lead all running backs in the vertical and broad jumps as well as coming 4th among RBs in the 40-yard dash. He didn’t do the agility testing, so we don’t have anything to go on there.
The Relative Athletic Score metric from @mathbomb on Twitter ranks a player against every player to test at the combine in his position since 1987. Brown’s score of 9.81 out of a possible 10 is a great indicator of his physical traits, just 2.9% of running backs since 1987 have tested better.
Player Profile
Strengths
Even with his excellent physical profile, Brown’s greatest strength might be his mind. He’s a smart, patient runner that uses his blockers well to create running lanes before consistently making the right decision once the defender has committed to a lane.
That’s not to say his physical attributes aren’t well used. Brown makes the most of his explosiveness to cut sharply both at the point of attack and in the open field. He uses his agility to minimise contact and force missed tackles repeatedly. Last year he was 2nd in the nation in forced missed tackles according to PFF.
Brown has the top end speed to accelerate away from defenders after cutting and rip off chunk plays. The play above is a great example of his rushing ability, he makes the right cut at the line of scrimmage, makes the unblock defender miss in space before running away from defenders for a 24 yard gain.
Whilst he hasn’t been the most prolific receiver in college, Brown has flashed receiving ability in his limited opportunities. After averaging 10 YPC on 14 receptions in 2021, he followed that up with 8.9 YPC on 27 receptions in 2022.
Weaknesses
Brown’s biggest weaknesses can be summed up as a lack of power. At 209 lbs he’s a little on the light side for a between the tackles running back and it shows up on the tape. He’s not the greatest in short-yardage situations as he struggles to push the pile forwards.
The lack of power also shows up in pass protection. Whilst he does a pretty good job of making the correct read he get’s pushed back easily creating a messy pocket for his quarterback. For Brown to be a three-down in back in the NFL he must improve in pass protection. Given his height, putting on a lot of bulk may not be reasonable so blocking technique should be his focus.
At times, Brown can be a little too patient in the run game. He can wait to long for the right hole to open. This results in defenders having time to get in position and make the tackle. At times taking the easy yards would be better than trying for the big play.
There are some concerns about Brown’s ball security after fumbling 5 times in 2022 on 329 carries. Over the rest of his college career combined he fumbled 3 times on 346 carries, so it may just be a little bit of bad luck involved there.
Finally, whilst Brown has flashed as a receiver, he is relatively inexperienced in the passing game. He has dropped some easy passes in college, so it’s possible over a larger sample size he may be quite inconsistent catching the ball.
Player Comparisons
There are some pretty positive player comparisons for Chase Brown across the scouting community. Raheem Mostert and Jerrick McKinnon are both explosive running backs with the potential big play ability. On the less optimistic side Mike Davis has been mentioned, who has been a solid role player but has topped out at 642 yards in a season.
Opportunities in Year One
In terms of Rookie year opportunities, it’s all going to come down to whether Joe Mixon is still on the team in September. Mixon is on a pretty high salary for a running back and with the Bengals needing to extend Joe Burrow, he may need to take a pay cut to stay on the team. It’s been a question all off-season and at this point we don’t have any idea whether Mixon is open to taking a pay cut.
If Mixon does stay on the team he will obviously be the clear number one option and the only running-back with fantasy value in Cincinnati. We might see some small volume of carries for Brown, but ultimately he would need a Mixon injury to get any kind of serious volume.
If Mixon leaves the picture is a lot more promising. The Bengals running-back room is pretty uninspiring beyond Mixon, although a veteran signing would be likely. Samaje Perine moved to Denver in the off season, whilst Trayveon Williams and Chris Brown haven’t showed much in the NFL to this point.
In an open competition I’d like Browns chances of earning a larger role than those two although it’s hard to see him being a three-down back from the offing. To stay on the field all the time he will need to improve in pass protection and show he can finish off drives at the goal-line. With his explosiveness, earning a large percentage of the between-the-20 carries could be enough to provide some solid fantasy scores.
Fantasy Outlook
At this stage of the off-season I would look to pick up Chase Brown late wherever I can in re-draft leagues. The potential upside is league winning if Mixon does get cut and Brown earns a significant role. Even if Mixon stays he would be a solid hand-cuff in the event of Mixon injury. Mixon has only played every game in 2 of his 6 NFL seasons, so it’s not a complete shot in the dark there.
In best-ball the same logic applies really, Brown has great upside depending how the off-season plays out and Mixon’s health through the year. With the speed he has Brown also has the potential to score big on a limited workload making him a great later round option.
Finally, in Dynasty, Brown is ranked as the 9th running back off the board on Fantasy Pros and as the 27th player overall. I think there’s a decent argument he should be a little higher, I like him as the RB7 ahead of Tank Bigsby and Tajae Spears. I would be comfortable taking him in the early 20s (late 2nd/early 3rd depending on your league size).
Interested in reading more? Check out the rest of the Rookies to Watch series here. Follow on twitter @ThinkingFantasy for more analysis and notifications when new articles go live!
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