Our series of NFL Rookies to Watch focuses on later round rookies who have the potential to provide fantasy value on draft day. In the first instalment we looked at Patriots 6th round receiver, Kayshon Boutte. Today we turn our attention to a running back; former LSU Tiger, Kendre Miller, the New Orleans Saints’ 3rd round pick.
Running backs have generally been the skill position that most easily transitions to the NFL in year one. Miller’s path to volume carries is not the clearest, but there is some potential for early opportunities as a rookie. Alvin Kamara’s looming court case could lead to a multi-game suspension during 2023. Whilst there is more interest long term given the Saints Cap situation.
College Career
Kendre Miller was recruited to TCU as a 3-star recruit after playing in high school at Mount Enterprise in east Texas. He entered as an unheralded part of the 2020 recruiting class as fellow NFL rookie, and 5-star recruit, Zach Evans, also joined the running-back room in Fort Worth.
Miller played in 9 of 10 games as true freshman, but was a clear back-up. His 54 carries were tied with Zach Evans for 2nd most by a TCU RB. In fact, QB Max Duggan lead the team in carries with 116. Whilst he didn’t get a huge volume of carries he was very efficient running for 388 yards at a rate of 7.2 per carry.
Ahead of the 2021 season, 2020’s leading running-back Darwin Barlow transferred to USC leaving 73 carries unaccounted for. Miller started the year as second fiddle to Zach Evans who had double digit carries 5 of the first 6 games. It was a disrupted season for TCU with long-standing head coach Gary Patterson leaving the program in October and Evans having an early end to his season after week 6. Miller’s carries rose a little up to 83 and his efficiency actually increased to 7.5 yards per carry, but his carry numbers were very inconsistent between games.
Going into 2022 it was all change at TCU. Former SMU head coach, Sonny Dykes came in to replace Patterson and Zach Evans opted to transfer to Ole Miss. Miller seized the opportunity and entered the season as the lead back for the Horned Frogs. He had an excellent year rushing for 1,399 yards on on 224 carries (6.2 ypc) and a whopping 17 touchdowns as TCU made it to the College Championship game. Unfortunately, Miller wasn’t able to take part after suffering an MCL injury in the playoffs semi-final.
Miller declared for the NFL draft shortly after the season, but was unable to test at either the scouting combine or his pro-day due to the MCL injury. So, we don’t have any up to date measurables to consider when evaluating his ability to make the step up to the NFL.
Player Profile
Strengths
From a physical stand point, Miller’s acceleration and short-area burst is the key to his success. He has the acceleration needed to shoot through holes when they open up as shown repeatedly in the tweet below. Once past the line-up of scrimmage he can make sharp cuts to make defenders miss in space. He shows the speed to run away from defenders once he get’s into the secondary despite a rather average 40 time (4.58s), albeit one from 3 years ago.
He also shows plenty of patience as a runner to allow the play to develop in front of him. At times, there’s shades of Leveon Bell to his ability to hide behind his blockers before selecting a gap to run through. The video in the tweet above shows a great example of Millers patience at 36 seconds as he stays behind his blocker before bursting through for a big play.
Miller shows great balance through contact if defenders don’t wrap up, he’s more than capable of shrugging off the contact with out stumbling and getting swamped by other defenders. Even when defenders attempt to wrap Miller up, he regularly runs through solo tackles to gain extra yards.
Putting it all together gets you to a back that is excellent at picking up yards after contact (YAC). Miller has been great at it throughout his college career, including leading the nation in YAC per carry in 2021 with 5.06. With the bigger workload in 2022 his YAC went down to 3.3 per carry, although that was still over half of his 6.2 yards per carry.
Outside of the running game, Miller has shown well as a pass blocker. He takes the initiative in picking up blitzers rather than waiting for them to come to him. When faced with linebackers and defensive backs he’s more than capable of stopping a blitzer in his tracks.
Finally, thanks to being used sparingly in 2020 and 2021 there’s hasn’t been much wear on Miller’s body. He totalled just 361 carries and will be 21 when the season starts. The only injury he had in his college career was the MCL injury that cost him the chance to play in the National Championship game.
Weaknesses
The biggest question mark on Miller is his receiving ability. But it is a question mark rather than a definite weakness – Miller had only 16 receptions in 2022 and 29 in his college career. There wasn’t many targets for running backs in the LSU offence last season, so it’s not necessarily a slight on his ability. He has flashed some receiving ability, but obviously not enough to force a bigger role in the passing game.
Miller can struggle to power through heavily congested areas between the tackles. This impacts his ability to run effectively in short yardage and goal-to-go situations. In the video above you can see Miller runs a lot to the outside even in short yardage situations – there a very few runs between guard and centre where he’s contacted at the line of scrimmage. In the NFL, he’ll find getting to the edge harder especially in short yardage situations so he may not be the best goal-to-go back.
Projections to the NFL
With the state of his game as it is, the general consensus is that Miller will be best as part of a rotation in the NFL and likely one where he doesn’t have to take the short-yardage carries. There’s certainly some hope amongst analysts that there is receiving talent in there that can be revealed with coaching and opportunities.
With improved receiving to go with his strong pass blocking he would have the ability to stay on the field for all three downs. It could lead to him shining in the 2 minute offence when defences are spread out more.
In terms of pro-comparisons, a best case scenario of Aaron Jones is mooted by the 33rd Team. Whilst his great balance has led to comparisons with new teammate Alvin Kamara.
Opportunities in Year One
Miller joins a Saints backfield headlined by superstar running-back Alvin Kamara. Also in the backfield is new signing, Jamaal Williams who comes over from the Detroit Lions after a very strong 2022 campaign in which he scored 17 touchdowns. Outside of those two, however, there is no-one of note currently on the depth chart.
Alvin Kamara could be heading for a suspension at some point in the 2023 season. He is facing a felony battery assault charge stemming from an incident in Las Vegas whilst Kamara was there for the Pro Bowl in February. He’s set to be in court again in August, and the NFL typically waits for legal preceding to finish before handing out any suspensions. According to league sources, Kamara is in line for at least a 6 game suspension but we don’t know when it will be handed out.
The headline numbers were great for Jamaal Williams last season, but when you take a closer look the picture is a bit more murky. Despite breaking the 1,000 yard mark, he did it at a rather average 4.1 yards per carry. When you consider the Lions had a top 10 run blocking line, you question how much of his success will translate to a Saints line that was in the bottom half of the league last year.
Jamaal Williams had his success as part of a time share. Even when his big name teammate, DeAndre Swift, was injured, Williams rarely managed 50% of the offensive snaps. So it’s fair to ask whether he would be the clear lead back if Kamara does miss time this season.
Fantasy Outlook
Kendre Miller will certainly see the field in year one, however, there are some question marks on how much volume he will get. Based off his profile, he projects to have more success between the 20’s than in the red-zone. But, if he can show well as a receiver he could see action in hurry-up and two minutes offence as well.
Kamara’s potential suspension is the obvious big question mark. If his case is resolved in August, you would expect a suspension to come in the 2023 season. In that situation I would expect Miller to split the backfield with Jamaal Williams, potential in something close to a 50/50 split. Without a Kamara suspension, the opportunities may be limited for Miller.
Miller should be drafted in all best ball leagues. In the case of a Kamara suspension or injury he could get have a really solid role in the Saints offence. Even on limited carries, Miller’s explosiveness could give him some spike weeks to help in best ball.
I think he’s also worth drafting in redraft for 10+ man leagues based off the suspension potential for Kamara. I think he’s a great late round RB choice and one I’d be targeting when going with a zero-RB strategy.
In Dynasty, Miller is a great value in the 2nd round of Rookie drafts. He might not have a clear path to a high workload in year one, but there is a path to a bigger role in year two and beyond. The Saints are perennially pressed against the salary cap and 2024 looks to be no different. They are currently projected to be between $60 and $80 million above the salary cap in 2024 and will need to make plenty of moves to get under.
Alvin Kamara is projected to be the 5th highest earner on the roster with a cap hit of $18,877,000. Cutting or trading him would save them $2 million, whilst a post-June 1 cut/trade would save $9 million. With Derek Carr on the roster for sure in 2024, the Saints won’t want to completely blow it up next year, so they will have to get creative again. However, the Saints do like to push cap pain through restructure and void years so don’t be surprised if Kamara does stick around in 2024.
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