NFL DFS Week 14 Recap

For the second week in a row, the line-up has performed well and earned a place in the money. I went big on Running Backs this week taking the top two options as well as returning to the QB-WR combo that earned a cash in Week 13. Let’s run through the line-up and see what lessons we can draw from it.

The Philadelphia Eagles took centre stage again this week, starting with Jalen Hurts at QB. The MVP favourite had another great week throwing for 2 TDs and adding another 77 yards and a TD with his legs. This is why mobile QBs are so valuable, Hurts only threw for 217 yards but added 13.7 on the ground or 45% of his total points.

AJ Brown didn’t have as big a game as last week but he still managed to catch a TD from Hurts. He managed 70 yards on 4 receptions in a game the Eagles ran away with early, perhaps limiting the passing volume for the Eagles.

I added Daniel Bellinger from the Giants who were stomped by the Eagles. He caught all three of targets for a mere 19 yards. It wasn’t looking to be a good day for him regardless, but he picked up a rib injury in the third quarter and despite trying to return in the 4th he was ruled out.

Next, I added a pair of wide receivers on either side of the Vikings @ Lions game, expecting a shoot-out. In the end the Lions controlled the game relatively easily, but there was still enough TDs to go around. DJ Chark continued his excellent return from injury with 6 catches for 94 yards and a TD.

On the other side of the game, I took the road less travelled with Adam Thielen. Despite being second fiddle to Justin Jefferson, Thielen caught 7 for 65 yards and a hard fought TD.

I rounded out the wide receiver with Marquez Valdes-Scantling of the Kansas City Chiefs, expecting a shot at some big plays. It didn’t come off this week with Valdes-Scantling catching just 1 of 3 targets for 20 of Patrick Mahomes’ 352 passing yards.

Tony Pollard was the first of the two top priced running backs in the line-up. I was expecting Dallas to cruise to an easy win over Houston offering plenty of volume for Pollard. The Texans came to play and were leading at halftime and inside 2 minutes to go in the 4th before the Cowboys squeezed a win. Pollard didn’t pick up too much yardage with 60 over 10 carries and 4 receptions, however, he added two touchdowns to post a solid 22.20 points.

I took Christian McCaffrey as my other running-back expecting plenty of volume as the 49ers started Brock Purdy at QB for the first time. Purdy was surprisingly solid as the 49ers swept the Buccaneers aside. McCaffrey feasted racking up 153 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns.

Finally, I took the Ravens defence against the Pittsburgh Steelers. QB Kenny Pickett suffered a concussion early in the game, leaving Mitch Trubisky to play the rest of the way. It worked out great for us as he threw 3 interceptions including a couple inside field goal range before adding a consolation TD in the 4th quarter.

Overall, the team earned 158.68 points finishing in 51st place out of 1607 entries earning a nice profit of £7.09. That was good for 30.22 points away from the top spot, so still a fair way off the big prize!

Final Thoughts

It’s great to earn a second cash in as many weeks and overall I’m happy with the decision making that got us here. One aspect to look at though, is the Marquez Valdes-Scantling decision.

The speedster can be quite boom-or-bust with 5 games of 20 or less yards this season and I guess that’s to be expected with lower percentage downfield targets. It may have been wiser to have chosen a player with more consistent targets, but on the other hand it looks great if he does grab a long TD.

The match-up wasn’t the greatest on paper with the Broncos having a solid secondary. But, I banked on Mahomes’ elite talent being enough to overcome that which he did with 352 passing yards, but did it limit the deep passing game? Maybe taking a shot on player with this profile should be done against weaker secondaries – or maybe I’m overanalysing this decision.

In last weeks recap article I discussed the need for some lower ownership players to go with some popular top options. Like last week I ended with 6 players with ownerships below 10%, although my two lowest owned players were my least successful. It may not have been the sole reason for success the last two weeks, but I think it is important to have the potential for big scores.

I was a little surprised McCaffrey’s ownership was under 10%, I expected he would be a very popular option given it seemed obvious the 49ers would run and look for short yards after the catch passes with Brock Purdy at QB. I guess people didn’t like the risk of a down week if it all went badly when he was the top priced RB.

We’ll return later in the week to cover some early thoughts on the Week 12 schedule. To make sure you see when the post goes live follow me on twitter @ThinkingFantasy

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