DFS Value Plays – Bet365 NFL Sunday Redzone Week 7

We come into NFL week 7 without an unbeaten team after both the 49ers and Eagles suffered shock losses last weekend. They both play in prime time this week so unfortunately we can’t take advantage of two teams motivated to make amends. In fact, with 6 teams on bye we’re down to 10 games in the early and late afternoon windows. For the most the players seem pretty well priced this week, so we may need to take some gambles to find value in DFS.

This week the Sunday Redzone competitions covers both the 1pm and 4pm kick-offs and entries start from £2. There is the standard 9-man line-up to fill consisting of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex and 1 D/ST with full PPR scoring and no yardage bonuses. The budget has been bumped up slightly to 117M, so 13M per player on average.

Quarterbacks

  • Jordan Love (17.1M) – If in doubt target the Broncos? There’s a lack of strong cheap options at Quarterback so targeting the Bronco’s putrid defence might be the best choice if you want to spend up at other positions. However, Jordan Love hasn’t exactly been a reliable fantasy asset in recent weeks. After the starting the year with three 20+ points scores, Love has managed 17 and 5 points in his last two starts. There is some hope for a rebound though. Green Bay are coming off a bye week and will hope to have a Aaron Jones and Christian Watson in much better health. If Love get’s his star skill position players available and healthy, his fantasy scores should recover.

Running Backs

  • Zach Evans (9.4M) – Kyren Williams is out this week and Evans looked to be the clear starter early in the week. Since then the Rams have brought a couple of plays in off the practice squad and the couch, so the picture is a little murkier. Sean McVay didn’t give much away to the press during the week, so we don’t have much concrete to go on. There is definitely a risk the Rams rotate a few backs this week, but given Evans was the one on the team all year they must think he’s the most talented. Zach Evans is a bit of a risky pick, but if he is the lead back for the Rams this week he would be a bargain at under 10M.
  • Jonathan Taylor (11.3M) – Jonathan Taylor has been eased back in slowly after returning from an ankle injury going from playing 15% to 42% of snaps over his first two games back. It’s also helped that Zach Moss has been playing really well in Taylor’s absence. The coaches have said he’s ready for a full workload moving forwards, which bodes well for him in fantasy. He does have a very tough match-up this week against the Cleveland Browns, but Taylor is talented enough to make something happen. Having Gardner Minshew at QB helps as well, he isn’t going to be taking red zone carries like Richardson was and we could well see a lot of screens and short passes Taylor can take advantage of.

Wide Receivers

  • Rashee Rice (9.4M) – The Kansas City Chiefs wide receivers have been a bit of a roulette wheel since Tyreek Hill left. Second round rookie Rashee Rice might be the most reliable WR on the team this season, he’s had 3 or more receptions in all but one game this season. He’s fast and has shown some good run after the catch ability, so it’s not too hard to envision earning more work as the year goes on. This week the Chiefs play the Chargers in what projects to be a shoot-out. The Chargers defence has been very kind to opposing WRs giving up 220 yards per game to the position. There’s obviously opportunities this week for the Chiefs receivers and Rice feels like the most likely to take advantage.
  • Gabe Davis (12.4M) – The Patriots have defended primary wide receivers very well, but they are one of the worst teams at defending a teams second receiver. This week that would point to a strong performance from Gabe Davis rather than Stefon Diggs. Davis has been ever-present for the Bills opposite Diggs, and whilst he hasn’t been close in targets he is still earning a solid 5 targets per game. Davis has scored 4 touchdowns so far this year, and with his elite speed he’s a threat to score from anywhere on the pitch.

Tight Ends

  • Michael Mayer (6.8M) – Michael Mayer is an absolute STEAL at 6.8M! We discussed Mayer earlier in the week in our Tight Streamers article as a player that may well be establishing a strong role now. The rookie’s targets and snap counts have risen dramatically over the last few weeks and he appears to be the clear TE1 over Austin Hooper now. This week’s match-up against the Bears is also one to target as they’ve allowed the most receptions to tight-ends so far this season.

Defence/Special Teams

It’s a pretty tricky week to pick a solid defence on a budget. It might well be a week to spend up at the position, but the Detroit Lions (7.4M) could be a sneaky pick. They do face the Ravens in Baltimore which you wouldn’t usually pick as a strong matchup. However, Baltimore hasn’t been firing on all cylinders this season and have been pretty turnover prone to date. With Lions’ defence playing pretty well in recent weeks they could put up a surprisingly strong score.

Interested in reading more? Follow on twitter @ThinkingFantasy

Leave a comment