DFS Value Plays – Bet365 NFL Sunday Redzone Week 2

Week 2 is upon us and we’re back to look through some value plays for the Bet365 Sunday Redzone competition. For the most part it feels prices haven’t reacted very quickly to what we saw in week one. There looks to be a lot of value at WR in particular this week. I’ll certainly be looking to take some stud options at RB with the budget savings you can make at WR.

This week the Sunday Redzone competitions covers both the 1pm and 4pm kick-offs and entries start from £2. There is the standard 9-man line-up to fill consisting of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex and 1 D/ST with full PPR scoring and no yardage bonuses. The budget has been bumped up slightly to 115M, so 12.78M per player on average.

Week 1 Overview

There were 1,112 entries in week one, with 190 places paid. 1st place was won with 161.2 points, or 17.92 points per player. Based on the budget of 12.22 per player that gives us a multiplier of 1.47x. To reach the money it took a score of 124.7 points, a multiplier of just 1.13x. The scores do seem a little low so we might expect a slightly higher multiplier on average.

Whether that’s the case this week, I’m not so sure. Expanding the number of games to include the 4pm kick-offs would generally lead to higher peak scores. However, it doesn’t look to be a very explosive week according to the betting over/unders. Half the games have their line set at 41 points or less and just one breaks the 50 points mark.

Quarterbacks

  • CJ Stroud (15.4M) – For the most part, I think it’s a week to pay up at QB. Either all the way up to Josh Allen and Justin Herbert or Anthony Richardson at a slightly more affordable mark. If you need a budget option to make your line-up work, I’d just go super cheap and take Texans QB CJ Stroud. He put up 10 points last weekend and should have an easier time moving the ball against the Indianapolis Colts. I’m not sure there’s a huge amount of upside here, so you’ll need to make the most of the savings if you go with Stroud.

Running Backs

  • Joshua Kelley (8.2M) – Joshua Kelley was a surprisingly big scorer for the LA Chargers last weekend, earning 91 yards and a TD against the Dolphins. This week Austin Ekeler’s status is up in the air as he deals with an ankle injury. Even if he does suit up, I think Kelley should be in line for another decent workload. The match-up isn’t ideal against Tennessee, but purely on volume, Kelley has a great chance to perform well this weekend.
  • Kyren Williams (8.1M) – Kyren Williams was the clear lead back for the Rams last week. He had the bulk of snaps and opportunities in the game until Cam Akers took some garbage time carries. He looked far better than Akers did and should continue to a big part of the Rams’ offence. Much like the Chargers, the match-up isn’t good against San Francisco but Williams should get plenty of opportunities. At 8.1M, there isn’t a cheaper running back who should see a significant workload this weekend.

Wide Receivers

  • Robert Woods (7.7M) – There were plenty of CJ Stroud targets to go around in week one, Robert Woods had 10 targets whilst Nico Collins had 11! Woods comes in 1.5M cheaper than Collins making him my preferred play of the two. Last week Woods turned his 10 targets into 6 catches and 57 yards. Against a weak Colts passing defence I think he can be a lot more efficient in this one.
  • Darius Slayton (7.5M) – Last week was a week to forget all around for the Giants, but they have an ideal spot to bounce back against the Cardinals. Slayton led the Giants in snap count for skill positions and in targets (alongside Darren Waller). He turned his 5 targets into 3 for 36 yards, against a much weaker defence we can expect more efficiency and hopefully more volume as well.
  • Zay Jones (9.3M) – Calvin Ridley is the clear alpha in Jacksonville and well worth playing on his own. But, Zay Jones is 4.3M cheaper and has established himself as an every down receiver for the Jaguars ahead of Christian Kirk. In what looks to be a shoot-out against Kansas City, there could be big days for any of the Jags receivers. With his snap advantage over Kirk, Jones is the receiver I’d want of the two.

Tight Ends

  • Adam Trautman (7.2M) – A Sean Payton favourite, Adam Trautman caught each of his 5 targets for 35 yards in week one. He also ran a route on a very healthy 62% of Russell Wilson’s drop backs. His competition at the position, Greg Dulcich, is now out for multiple weeks we can expect his role to grow if anything. This week the Broncos play the Commanders who just gave up 41 yards a touchdown to Hayden Hurst and the overall TE2 in week one.

Defence/Special Teams

The New York Jets (6.8M) face the Cowboys in week two, not a match-up you would target at first glance. However, Dak Prescott did throw a career high 15 touchdowns last season. Prescott was turnover free in week one, but he didn’t have a lot to do against a Giants team that imploded in the first quarter. The Jets on the other hand had an excellent week one forcing 4 turnovers, one returned for a TD, and sacking Josh Allen 5 times on Sunday. Despite having to travel to Dallas, I like the Jets to do well in this game!

Interested in reading more? Follow on twitter @ThinkingFantasy

Leave a comment