The NFL returns this weekend and so do the Bet365 Daily Fantasy competitions. Again this season, we’ll be picking out some value plays to help you fit some star players in your line-ups. The Sunday Redzone competitions covers the 1pm kick-offs only and entries start from £2. There is the standard 9-man line-up to fill consisting of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex and 1 D/ST with full PPR scoring and no yardage bonuses. The budget is set at 110M, so 12.22M per player on average.

Before we get into the picks, a few comments on strategy for large field tournaments. The pay-out percentage for this tournament is 17% and for the majority of those places the returns won’t be much more than the entry cost. If you want a significant return on your entry fee, then getting into the top places is a must. To do that against 1,000+ competing line-ups we’re going to need big scores from the majority of our players.

Stacking players from a team or game is probably the most important element of line-up building if we want to hit big scores across the 9 players. By stacking multiple players from one game, such as a QB and his receiver, we reduce the amount of things that have to go right for our players to score big. This correlation of results helps us to have our players score well together (such as our QB throwing a TD to our receiver) rather than hoping a lot of games all work out right. There are a few ways to stacks that may be appropriate depending on the team and week.

• QB/Receiver stacks: The most obvious stack and one you should be use in just about every line-up. Pairing your quarterback with one (or more) of their pass catchers. Typically, you want to pair one or two pass catchers, usually WRs or TEs although RBs can be useful in some situations. Three or more pass catchers usually has diminishing returns.
• Bring back stacks: Alongside your QB/Receiver stack, selecting a receiver from their opponent can provide great returns. If your QB stack does well, then their opposition will probably need to pass a lot to keep up. Selecting one of that teams top receivers will let you make the most of a shoot-out game.
• Defence/RB stacks: The final stack to consider is stacking a defence with the teams top RB. In this case we’re predicting the defence to keep the score low, allowing the offence to run the ball through-out and get our RB a lot of touches.

However, getting big score is not the only thing we need to consider. We need to consider how well owned our players are. We want to have at least some players that most other players don’t (less than 5% ownership preferably). If we end up with all the same players as everyone else, when we do get big scores everyone else will also making it very hard to get up to the big pay-outs.

This isn’t to say we need to fill the whole roster with players no-one else has. There’s a reason a lot of players are popular – they have good match-ups and should score well. Find a balance between the popular more guaranteed scorers and some less popular riskier picks can be tricky, one easy technique can be taking the WR2 instead of the super popular WR1 in an offence.

Quarterbacks

• Sam Howell (16.6M) – There aren’t any quarterbacks available under the average player price, but Washington’s Sam Howell is the cheapest one I think is viable. Howell isn’t the big names you think of for a monster score, but he gets a perfect home match-up at home to the Cardinals. In his one appearance last season Howell also showed some decent running potential to help boost his score. Finally, he should benefit from a new OC in Eric Bieniemy who will look to scheme some easy completions to the Commanders’ talented wide receivers.

Running Backs

• Jaylen Warren (8.2M) – Jaylen Warren looks set for a sizeable role in Pittsburgh alongside Najee Harris. He’s probably on the short side of a 60/40 split, but Warren should get more of the high value touches in the passing game and potentially in the red-zone as well. This week the Steelers face the 49ers who should blitz a lot more this season under DC Steve Wilks and have just signed Nick Bosa to a contract extension. So, we can expect a lot of quick passes from the Steelers to neutralise the pass rush. With that in mind, Warren could provide great value in the underneath passing game and on screens.
• Brian Robinson (10.8M) – The Commanders face a Cardinals team starting Josh Dobbs at QB this week. The expectations is they will dominate the game and be in a positive game script throughout. This projects well for Brian Robinson as we can expect the Commanders to run the ball a ton and shouldn’t need to get away from it at any point. I’m expecting 20+ touches from Robinson which could turn in to a big fantasy score. He’s a great choice for Defence/RB stack this week.

Wide Receivers

• Allen Robinson (5.5M) – The second Steeler in the list is new wide receiver Allen Robinson. Robinson has worked exclusively with the starters in pre-season, so he should have some kind of role this year. He is behind Diontae Johnson and George Pickens in the depth chart, but at a very cheap 5.5M he doesn’t have to do a lot to provide value. Robinson has been playing in the slot during pre-season and with his big frame he could be a factor in the red-zone.
• Deandre Hopkins (10.1M) – 2022 was a year to forget for Deandre Hopkins. Between a PED suspension to start the year, a knee sprain to end the year and Kyler Murray getting injured, Hopkins managed just 717 yards and 3 touchdown. However, when healthy he was still an excellent receiver, he was the WR9 in fantasy points over the 9 games he played. Now on the Titans, Hopkins faces the Saints in week one. I expect the Saints to score well and force the Titans to pass in this one, Hopkins is the clear top target for Tannehill and should succeed on volume this week.

Tight Ends

• Cade Otton (6.4M) – Cade Otton is the clear starting tight-end for the Buccaneers this year after Cameron Brate left in free agency. However, there has been an obvious major downgrade at QB from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield. Mayfield has historically had success throwing to his tight-end and he should need to throw against Justin Jefferson and the Minnesota Vikings. Vikings DC Brian Flores has typically called a lot of blitzes, so we can expect Mayfield will need to get rid of the ball early. I think that plays into the tight-end position well with some check down options and could lead to a dud week for Mike Evans.

Defence/Special Teams

When picking defences we don’t need to be too concerned about points conceded. Instead we want to focus on defences that can rack up sacks and turnovers to up our chances of getting a defensive score. Defences against rookie quarterbacks are the type of match-up we want to target, especially early in the season when they are still finding their feet in the NFL. There are two teams facing rookie quarterbacks on the slate and both are very similarly priced.

The Atlanta Falcons (8.3M) face first overall pick Bryce Young and despite have a poor defence last year could be in line for a good performance. My favoured pick of the two is the Jacksonville Jaguars (8.2M) against Anthony Richardson and the Colts. Richardson is far more of a raw passer than Bryce Young increasing our chances of interceptions. The sack chances might be a little lower against an uber-athletic Quarterback, but the increased rushes should give a better chance at fumbles.

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