Our series of NFL Rookies to Watch focuses on later round rookies who have the potential to provide fantasy value on draft day. In the fifth instalment, we’re turning our attentions to a 2nd round wide receiver in Panthers’ Jonathan Mingo. If you’re interested in reading the previous articles in the series, you can find them here.
Mingo was a slow starter in college but shot up draft boards with a big 2022 season and continued to rise through the pre-draft process. Whilst the Panthers have a pretty full depth chart at wide receiver, they are shallow on top tier talent. If Mingo can make a connection with fellow rookie, Bryce Young he has the potential to be a valuable fantasy contributor.
College Career
Jonathan Mingo played high school football at Brandon High School in Brandon, Mississippi. In his senior year Mingo caught 77 passes for 1,451 yards and 14 touchdowns in 15 games as Brandon made it to the State Championship game. It was enough to see him named to the first team All State side. He left high school as a 4-star recruit and the 22nd ranked WR nationally.
Despite receiving offers from Georgia and Auburn, Mingo opted to stay in state at Ole Miss. He was an immediate starter in his freshman year but was a clear secondary target to current Browns WR, Elijah Moore, managing just 12 catches for 172 yards and a TD. Mingo remained behind Moore in his second season but saw his production increase to 27 catches for 379 yards and 3 touchdowns.
After Elijah Moore was drafted to the NFL in 2021, Mingo looked to be headed for a breakout season. Over the first 6 games of the year Mingo managed 346 yards and 3 touchdowns on 22 catches, before a broken foot put an end to his season.
In his senior year Mingo came back strong from the foot injury. As the clear top target in the Rebels attack, Mingo caught 51 passes for 861 yards and 5 touchdowns. He topped it off by setting the Ole Miss single game receiving record with 247 yards against Vanderbilt.
After the season, Mingo continued to impress at the Senior Bowl before being invited to the NFL Scouting Combine.
Scouting in Numbers
Mingo continued to impress at the Combine with some really impressive numbers for a 220 lb wide receiver. Unsurprisingly he showed well at the bench press and that strength showed through in some excellent explosiveness in both the jumping drills and the early splits of the 40 yard dash.
On the other hand, his overall 40 time was a little less impressive, but still very solid for his size. He also was just average in the change of direction drills which could be an issue at the pro level.
The Relative Athletic Score metric from @mathbomb on Twitter ranks a player against every player to test at the combine in his position since 1987. Overall, Mingo scored an excellent 9.86 out of 10 indicating less than 2% of receivers have tested better than him in the last 3 and a half decades. In fact he was one of the top 10 RAS performers at this years Combine across all positions.
Player Profile
Strengths
Mingo’s strength and size jumps off the tape. He uses his strength, alongside his explosiveness, to gain separation early in the route. When that fails he excels in contested catch situations using his big frame to box out defenders from the ball.
His body control is excellent to adjust to passes at the edge of his catch radius as shown in the first play in the tweet below. He also does a great job of getting his hands up late to prevent defenders making a play on the ball. His hand strength is also excellent to hold onto the ball though contact.
His size and strength also make him a tough player to tackle in the open field. He’s a really physical runner that is a real handful to bring down, especially for defensive backs. It make him a real threat on short routes, jet motions and bubble screens where he can get the ball in his hands quickly and make something happen.
Jonathan Mingo’s strength continues to show in his play as a run blocker. He’s comfortably the best run blocker among this year’s rookie wide receivers. Mingo makes great initial contact and does a good job staying engaged through the play. He has been more than a match for most defensive backs playing in college and his size/strength combination allow him to be competitive in the trenches against linebackers as well.
Finally, Mingo has gained experience playing across the formation in his college career. After being predominantly an outside receiver for his first three and a half years, Mingo moved almost exclusively to the slot over the back half of 2022. He continued to perform well from his new position and should offer good position flexibility in an NFL offence.
Weaknesses
Mingo ran a pretty limited route tree throughout his college career. He was used a lot on short routes to the make the most of his YAC ability as well as deep shots of the back of the run game. A lot of his success in the intermediate area of the field came off designed motion plays where he could get a running start. He’ll need to improve in this area to be a big part of an NFL offence.
His struggles in the intermediate areas of the field stem mostly from a lack of acceleration in and out of breaks. Whilst Mingo builds up momentum early in the route, he can get swamped by defenders when changing direction. There’s definite questions whether he can improve his route running enough to be truly successful on intermediate routes.
Whilst Mingo’s forty time is pretty solid overall, it’s based more off a very quick start that true deep speed. He often struggled to gain clear separation on deep routes in college and it’s a real concern against the faster NFL defenders. His ability at making contested catches mitigates this somewhat, but there’s only so many 50/50 balls you can expect to win over a season.
Player Comparisons
Greg Cosell has compared Mingo’s play style to Deebo Samuel but perhaps not quite as explosive an athlete. Other comparisons across the scouting community include Haseem Nicks, Corey Davis and Mohammad Sanu.
Opportunities in Year One
Mingo will start his NFL career with Sean McVay disciple, Thomas Brown, as his offensive co-ordinator and offensive guru Frank Reich as his head coach. Reich has ran a lot of West Coast principles in the NFL, focussing on spreading a defence horizontally in a quick passing attack. In his time in Philadelphia he brought the RPO to the forefront of NFL passing schemes en-route to a Super Bowl victory, something Mingo could excel with his YAC ability.
In Bryce Young, the Panthers have drafted the perfect QB for Reich’s system. Throughout the draft process, Young has been touted as a very smart quarterback capable of reading defences and making smart decisions. Young ran a very advanced offence under OC Bill O’Brien that had him reading the whole field on passing downs. Throw in Young’s ability to run and it not hard to see him piloting an above average offence in his rookie season.
Mingo joins a Panthers receiving room that has plenty of depth. However, there’s no-one you’d have as a true number one receiver after DJ Moore was traded to Chicago. Terrence Marshall Jr flashed last season as a big play threat catching 28 for 490 yards and 1 touchdown, but it’s a big step for him to become the top target in an offence.
Free Agency additions DJ Chark and Adam Theilen bring some much needed experience, but both come with questions. After a breakout 2019 season in Jacksonville, Chark has struggled to stay on the field missing a minimum of three games in each season since. Whilst at 32 Adam Theilen has become a pure possession receiver. Over the last two seasons he has averaged just 10.5 yards per catch with a long of 36 yards.
Outside of the wide receivers, Hayden Hurst is a solid option at Tight End but not one to build an offence around. In the backfield Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard also aren’t likely to dominate targets like Christian McCaffery used to Charlotte.
Mingo has impressed through the off-season to date, with Frank Reich naming has one of the stand-outs performers so far. If he can continue to impress over the summer he has every chance to earn a role in the Panthers offence, although Theilen’s strength at making short contested catches does clash with a role Mingo seems suited to. Mingo’s run blocking prowess may be the key to his chances, if he shows well he can get on the field regularly and potentially earn some high value targets in the RPO game and off of play action.
Fantasy Outlook
At this point in the off-season I think Mingo is one to watch in most re-draft leagues. If he continues to impress through training camp, I will be looking at him in the late rounds in August. If you’re in an especially deep league, he might worth considering drafting now.
In best-ball I think Mingo is already worth drafting in the late rounds. His YAC ability gives him the potential to have some huge yardage weeks. If he can make a strong connection with Bryce Young he could have some strong TD upside in the red zone as well.
Jonathan Mingo’s dynasty outlook looks a lot better. With a rookie QB he might have a slower rookie year, but beyond that the future is bright. DJ Chark is a free agent at the end of the season and as pro-ready as Bryce Young is you would expect him to improve further over his first few years in the league. Fantasy Pros have him as the 13th overall rookie and 5th wide receiver off the board in rookie drafts. I think that’s pretty fair value for him.
Interested in reading more? Check out the rest of the Rookies to Watch series here. Follow on twitter @ThinkingFantasy for more analysis and notifications when new articles go live!
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