Our series of NFL Rookies to Watch focuses on later round rookies who have the potential to provide fantasy value on draft day. In the first two articles we covered a wide receiver and a running back, you can find both here. Today we turn our attentions to a tight end, the Green Bay Packers’ 2nd round pick Luke Musgrave.
Tight Ends haven’t typically had consistent success early in their NFL careers, particularly for fantasy purposes. However, outside of an elite handful of tight ends there hasn’t been a lot of consistent options in fantasy and this year doesn’t look any different. So if we miss out on the first couple of tiers of tight-ends a rookie might be as good as anyone. Musgrave does have the potential of a big role in his rookie year for a Green Bay offence in flux after trading Aaron Rodgers.
College Career
Luke Musgrave played football at Bend Senior High School in Oregon, he was a two way starter, also playing defensive end, as well as playing 3 other sports. He stayed in state for college, after being recruited to Oregon State as a 3 star recruit. Musgrave comes from a footballing family, his father Doug Musgrave played QB at Oregon. As did his uncle Bill Musgrave who also went onto play NFL football and currently is a Senior Offensive assistant with the Cleveland Browns.
Musgrave played in 8 games as a true freshman in 2019, however, there wasn’t many opportunities on offence. He managed just 2 catches for 18 yards on 59 snaps. Despite the 2020 season being shortened by Covid, Musgrave’s snap count grew significantly to 312. His production improved as well, although he still only had 12 catches for 142 yards.
His junior year saw further improvement for Musgrave as he caught 22 passes for 304 yards and his first college touchdown. He looked to be heading towards a breakout season in 2022 as well after he caught 11 for 169 yards and another touchdown in two games. However, Musgrave’s season was cut short due to a MCL tear.
Musgrave was back to full health in time to play at the Senior Bowl in February and he impressed in practices clocking a top speed of over 20 miles per hour. It was a different story in the game itself as he caught just 2 for 13 yards.
Combine in Numbers
Overall it was a very impressive scouting combine for Luke Musgrave. He excelled in the 40 yard dash recording the 4th fastest time among Tight Ends overall and the leading 10 yard split. He did very well in the jump testing as well, but wasn’t quite as impressive in the change of direction drills.
I like the Relative Athletic Score (RAS) metrics from @mathbomb on Twitter as quick way to assess prospects athletic profile. Musgrave scored an almost perfect 9.78/10 and ranked in the top 2.26% of Tight Ends since 1987! So we can see the physical ability is there to succeed at the pro level.
Player Profile
Strengths
Physically, Musgrave is exactly what you’d want from a pass catching tight-end. He has the height and wing-span to make things easy on his QB in congested areas and effectively box out wide receivers. Whilst he might not show the best agility, his speed and quickness are elite for a player his size.
As you can see on the tape above, Musgrave makes the most of physical attributes as receiver. His excellent short area quickness allows him to separate from his defender early in the route or when changing direction. Whilst, his top end speed makes him a true vertical threat when aligned against linebackers and safeties in addition to excelling on crossing routes.
Musgrave adds to his physical abilities with strong route running technique. He uses his body well to set-up defenders in coverage before making sharp cuts to separate. His combination of technical and physical abilities allow him to line-up across the formation. He’s played plenty as an in-line tight-end in Oregon’s run heavy scheme, but he can also operate in the slot or as an isolated boundary receiver.
Musgrave is also an asset in the run game and has plenty of experience run blocking compared to some receiving tight-ends. He makes strong initial contact to disrupt his man and works hard to stay engaged.
Weaknesses
Overall, the concerns about Musgrave can be summarised as a need to play stronger in all phases of the game. Something that might be benefitted by adding some extra muscle. He struggles with contact as a receiver both during the route and after the catch. When contacted early in his route Musgrave can get off schedule easily. After the catch first contact is usually enough to bring him down. He had just two broken tackles in college, albeit in a small sample size.
Musgrave has also struggled with consistency when catching the ball. He has 9 drops across his college career which is a pretty bad rate, although the small samples size is a factor again. Musgrave has also shows some issues when attempting to make contested catches, something he will definitely need to improve against faster NFL defenders he won’t separate from as easily.
Whilst he has had some success as a run blocker, Musgrave can struggle to maintain blocks after initial contact. He isn’t the bulkiest for a man his size which reveals itself in the lack of push he gets and when blocking against larger defenders in the trenches. In terms of pass blocking, there just isn’t much on tape for him as he pass blocked on less than 6% of snaps.
Perhaps the biggest concern with Musgrave is the lack of production we have on tape for him. There is a big element of projection when assessing Musgrave compared to other players in his draft class. Given Oregon don’t run a particularly pass heavy offence and Musgrave’s injury last year there are mitigating circumstances.
Player Comparisons
There are a variety of pro comparison for Musgrave across the scouting community, perhaps speaking to the uncertainty in his evaluation. At the most optimistic is Darren Waller, a similarly gifted athlete. Mike Gesicki also gets a mention as well as Saints’ third year tight-end Adam Trautman.
Opportunities in Year One
Musgrave joins a Green Bay side in transition from Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love. How Jordan Love makes the step up to a full time starter will go a long way to defining how good Musgraves rookie season can be. Jordan Love has barely played in his three years behind Aaron Rodgers, dropping back to pass a mere 91 times. He made his only start in 2021 against the Kansas City Chiefs and was terrible. But, last year he looked solid stepping in for Rodgers against the Eagles going 6 of 9 for 113 yards and a TD.
Musgrave enters the season as the starting tight end for Green Bay after Robert Tonyan left for division rival Chicago Bears. There isn’t much competition in the tight-end room either as Marcedes Lewis remains a free agent. Fellow rookie Tucker Kraft is the second man up and the depth chart is pretty threadbare after that.
Tonyan’s performances in the Green Bay offence may give us an indication of the ceiling we could see from Musgrave. In his two healthy seasons in Matt LaFleur’s offence Tonyan managed 586 and 470 yards on 59 and 67 targets respectively. Whilst there is an obvious downgrade at QB in Green Bay to cast doubt on this as a projection, there is also less competition for targets with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb in New York with Aaron Rodgers.
That’s not to say there isn’t strong competition for targets in Green Bay. Christian Watson’s rookie season got off to a slow start. However, it exploded over the back half of the year for 7 touchdowns and three 100 yard games post-week 10. Fellow second year receiver, Romeo Doubs looks set to make the jump to starter alongside him. Aaron Jones also provides a legitimate receiving threat from the running back position. He’s flexible enough to be split out wide at times and has managed 47+ receptions in each of the last 4 years.
The reports from OTAs have been really promising for Luke Musgrave. He’s been the clear starter at tight-end and has been one of the most impressive players according to beat writers. Admittedly, the pads haven’t came out yet so we shouldn’t crown him a star just too early but everything is pointing in the right direction for Musgrave.
Fantasy Outlook
At this point it’s a bit premature to suggest drafting Luke Musgrave as your only tight-end in re-draft leagues. However, I think he can definitely be part of a streaming strategy at the position and could make sense to draft alongside one of the back-end TE1’s if you have a deep bench. If the reports continue to be strong through pre-season he may end up being worth considering as a week one starter if you miss out on the top couple of tiers of tight-ends.
In Best Ball he’s a slam dunk addition to any roster. With his elite speed he’s got obvious big play potential and could be part of a interesting differential stack with Love and Watson/Doubs.
In dynasty, Musgrave is typically going as the 4th tight-end off the board. I think he has the potential be as good as LaPorta and Mayer above him, but given the lack of tape Musgrave 4th feels a fair position.
Interested in reading more? Check out the rest of the Rookies to Watch series here. Follow on twitter @ThinkingFantasy for more analysis and notifications when new articles go live!
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