The NFL draft wrapped last Saturday night with 259 players drafted. There were potential fantasy superstars drafted in the first round including Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Jordan Addison who are likely to be highly sought after in drafts this summer. While, mobile QB Anthony Robinson is perhaps the best placed of the QBs for instant fantasy success in Shane Steichen’s creative offence.
Outside of the first round fantasy value is less predictable, but, if we can find the right players there can be huge value on draft day. It’s obviously hard to know how any of these players will work out at this stage, but the players covered in this series are all worth monitoring as we head towards OTAs and training camp. If they earn their snaps, they may even be a key part of your run to a fantasy Championship!
First up is Patriots 6th round wide receiver Kayshon Boutte. Coming in to 2022, Boutte was a highly touted prospect and seemed destined to be the next LSU receiver to go in the first round. However, a drop in production, poor testing at the combine, injuries, and character concerns caused him to drop all the way to the 187th pick in the draft.
The Patriots have a track record with late round wide receivers turning hidden gems like Julian Edelman into great players and solid fantasy contributors. If he can return to the highs he showed in 2020 and 2021, Boutte could be one of the steals of the NFL draft and fantasy-relevant in his first year.
College Career
Coming out of high school in New Iberia, Louisiana, Kayshon Boutte was the #2 ranked wide receiver in the country. He opted to stay in state at LSU, a school that has been one of, if not, the greatest developers of NFL calibre wide receivers this century. Among the recent great Tigers’ receivers are NFL superstars Odell Beckham, JaMarr Chase and Justin Jefferson.
After JaMarr Chase opted out of the 2020 season, Boutte stepped into a bigger role than expected in his true-freshman season. When Terrence Marshall opted out during the season his role grew further. As the season went on Boutte flashed his talent with a conference-record 306 yard game – more than any of the LSU superstar receivers that came before him. He started to add consistency as well, ending the year with three consecutive 100 yard games.
Boutte carried that consistency into 2021 and through 6 weeks of the season he had amassed 509 yards and a nation-leading 9 touchdown catches. However, his season ended early in week 6 as he suffered a broken ankle attempting a sideline catch. The bad news was compounded as his ankle did not set correctly and required further surgery in January. All in all, Boutte was off the practice field for 10 months – not ideal when a new offence is being introduced.
Going into 2022, LSU had a change of regime and offensive system with Brian Kelly replacing Ed Orgeron as the head coach. Boutte didn’t get off to a great start as he was called out by Kelly for not attending off-season activities during his recovery.
Health appeared to be an issue throughout the season as he struggled to just 538 yards (11.2 ypc) and two touchdowns. But, his role was also vastly different in the new offence. He moved from playing predominantly outside, to lining up in the slot over 70% of the time. So it’s unclear how much of his struggles are due to his injury.
He continued to butt heads with the coaching staff throughout the season, leading to character concerns raising themselves over the season. However, Kelly has been quoted as saying he “came around late in the year”.
His declaration for the draft wasn’t without drama either. Initially, Boutte announced he would return to LSU for his senior year prior to the Citrus Bowl. However, he changed his mind and declared shortly after before deciding to sit out of the Citrus Bowl.
Combine in Numbers
Boutte attended the combine in Indianapolis and took part in the majority of the receiver testing. The results were disappointing, to say the least, with Boutte testing as a middling wide receiver. His time in the 40 yard dash was a particular disappointment after being a part of a 4×200 yard dash team that broke the Louisiana state high school record.
Kayshon did take responsibility for the poor testing, but acknowledged his 2021 ankle injury was still limiting him. That does seem to check out with reports that Boutte ran the 40-yard dash in a sub 4.40 time in high school. Whether he can re-find that top gear is a key question going into his pro career.
Player Profile
Strengths
Boutte’s ability to generate yards after the catch has been the key to the success he had at LSU in 2020 and 2021. Over his 9 game purple patch, from the last 3 games of 2020 until his ankle injury, Boutte racked up 493 YAC. Enough to lead the entirety of College Football over that time period.
Boutte puts himself into a position to gather YAC with his sharp route running. Against zone coverage he has a great feel for where the holes are in coverage as shown in the play above from this year’s SEC Championship game. Boutte slows his pace as he gets behind the defender and, once the defender turns his head to the outside, he accelerates to the middle of the field for an easy catch.
Against man, he uses clever feints to get the defender to commit before making sharp cuts to head to open grass. He also has enough speed to force defenders to respect his potential to run vertically, allowing him to use his excellent quickness to break routes off crisply.
In this play, Boutte pushes vertically against the safety coming down into man coverage. Once the safety’s hips flip, he cuts across his face for an easy touchdown.
Additionally, Boutte is fantastic at running through tackles to gain extra yards, over the same time period he picked up 208 yards after contact (again leading College football). Over his college career forced up 30 broken tackles.
The play above from this year’s SEC Championship game is the perfect example of as Boutte runs through multiple tackles on his way to the end zone. For a deeper dive into Boutte’s tape I’d highly recommend FF Astronauts excellent film study.
Finally, Boutte is a strong team players when he isn’t getting the ball, he runs his routes at full speed and sets up his defenders well to create space for other receivers. In the run game, he shows a willingness to block and can be asset blocking defensive backs.
Weaknesses
The biggest question mark lingering over Boutte is the health of his ankle. Is this reduced athleticism the new normal, or, will he recover the explosiveness he showed in 2020 and 2021 with more time to recover?
Whilst he didn’t test well at the combine in February he did flash explosiveness on the field during the 2022 season. We can also see from his 10 yard split, that he has some solid quickness of the line but loses time over the course of the 40 yard dash. So there is some hope that he has the physical traits needed to separate at the pro level.
Boutte has struggled in contested catch situation, he caught just 12 of 36 (33.3%). It’s a relatively low number overall which speaks to his strengths in separating from defender. However, it is a concern moving up to the NFL level as you would expect he will get less separation against stronger defensive backs.
He has also struggled with drops in college, he had a tendency to start planning his run before he has secured the ball on short routes. His 11% drop rate will need to improve if he’s to earn significant snaps under Bill Belichick. Fortunately, drops and contested catching can both be overcome through coaching and practice.
Boutte can struggle to get a clean release when lined up on the outside. Slowness of the line can allow defenders to engage him around the line of scrimmage and disrupt his route from the outset. This hinders his impact on the outside and forces him more into slot or bunch formations to ensure he can get into his route on time. Again, this is something he can improve on with coaching.
Finally, there have been concerns over Boutte’s character stemming from the 2022 season. At times he showed a lack of effort and head coach Brian Kelly hasn’t hidden the fact they butted heads through the season. Jeff Howe of the Athletic has even reported Boutte was off some draft boards due to “coach-ability concerns”.
Given the lack of complaints from his first two years at LSU, I’m inclined to believe this year might be the exception rather than the rule in terms of character concerns. Boutte essentially had no off-season to learn a new offence and his reduced role reflected that. For a receiver that came into the year with eyes on the Biletnikoff award, it was a massive reality check one you hope he would grow from.
Projections to the NFL
The consensus is Kayshon Boutte projects to be a big-bodied slot receiver in the NFL. It certainly plays into his strong route running skills and feel for zone coverage and perhaps projects for his top end speed not returning. He has comparisons to fellow LSU Alum Jarvis Landry as well as Robert Woods and Christian Kirk.
In a best case scenario, scouting guru Greg Cossell compares to Boutte to Stefon Diggs. However, it’s hard to imagine him reaching those heights in year one.
Opportunities in Year One
New signings Juju Smith Schuster and Mike Gesicki lead the Patriots receiving room coming into the 2023 season. Though neither are a dominant option that defences have to adjust for. 2022 2nd round pick, Tyquan Thornton, had a slow start to his rookie season, but improved as the year went on and should be in the mix for more targets this year.
Rounding out the veterans receivers are Devante Parker and Kendrick Bourne at WR both underwhelming options on the outside. Neither have any guaranteed money remaining on their contracts making them potential cut candidates over the summer. At tight-end, Hunter Henry returns after a disappointing 2022 season, he caught 9 TDs in 2021 but managed just 2 last season as the entire offence struggled.
Smith Schuster has struggled as the lead receiver in the past. As the number one option in 2020 and 2021 Juju managed just 8.6 yards per catch. He improved last year with the Chiefs, with Travis Kelce to draw attention. As a tight end, Gesicki does the majority of his damage over the middle of the field putting him in competition with Boutte. Finally, running-back Rhamondre Stephenson should also be heavily involved again this season, again competing with Boutte for targets in the short passing game.
Bill O’Brien returns to the Patriots as Offensive Co-ordinator fresh off of two years running the offence in Alabama. We can expect him to mix in some of the Alabama spread and RPO concepts that QB Mac Jones is familiar with alongside more traditional offensive concepts. This should help ease the learning curve for Mac Jones and give him a great chance to make big improvements on a disappointing 2022 season.
Typically, O’Brien has made use of a timing-based passing game that looks to take advantage of match-ups and zone coverage schemes to create separation. On paper, this plays right into Boutte’s strengths as a route runner and at identify the soft spot in coverages.
In the running game, the expectation is that we will see predominantly man-gap running plays and a heavy dose of play action off of that. If Boutte can continue to show willingness as a blocker there could be opportunities for him to get on the field in these situations.
Fantasy Outlook
I think Boutte has enough on tape to suggest he can be a solid contributor at the NFL level. Despite his poor testing, he does flash explosiveness and top end speed in his 2022 tape. His projection as slot receiver will mitigate some of the concerns with his speed. Whether he makes the step in year one is another question, but, the Patriots set of wide receivers aren’t the most imposing competition for snaps.
At this point in the off-season he’s one to monitor for most season-long leagues. In especially deep leagues I would be looking to pick him up late on. If he can impress over the OTAs and training camp, there’s a realistic path to snaps, especially if Parker or Bourne are cut. On the other hand, competition for targets over the middle, may mean he struggles for snaps without improving his release to play on the outside.
For deep best-ball leagues I think he’s worth a late round selection now. If he does earn snaps in the Patriots offence, his excellent run after the catch ability allows him to create big plays out of short targets. This gives him the potential for the monster days you need to succeed in best-ball.
In dynasty rookie-drafts I’m pretty high on Boutte. He’ll be just 21 when the season starts, so he has time to improve both in health and technique. His health obviously is a key question, but if he can get his top end speed back the upside is huge. In an ideal scenario, I think he has the potential to be the lead receiver for the Patriots by year two or three. Currently, rankings have him somewhere between a 4th and 5th round pick in rookie drafts. Personally I would be very happy to pick him up in the 3rd whenever he’s available.
Interested in reading more? Check out the rest of our favourite rookies here and follow on twitter @ThinkingFantasy for more analysis + notifications when new articles go live!
Thinking Fantasy 
Leave a comment