NFL DFS Week 12 Early Thoughts

I’m back to go through my favourite plays in the Bet365 Sunday Redzone competition. Teams consist of 9 players (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 DST) with a total budget of 135M, giving an average per player of 15M. My plays will generally lean towards the cheaper side to allow some stud players to be fitted into a line-up as well.

Quarterbacks

There isn’t a lot of budget QBs that jump-out this week. There is an option to take a complete dart throw on Kyle Allen (11.2M) or Sam Darnold (11.8M) in their first starts of the season. Allen might be able to put up a serviceable performance against a leaky Miami defence, but he still isn’t particularly inspiring.

Overall, I think this is a week to go for one of the top QBs, with any of the top 5 priced players being a solid option. I would lean towards Tua Tagovailoa (19.4M) or Lamar Jackson (19.8M) to get some rushing upside alongside the elite passing ability.

Running Backs
  • Antonio Gibson (13.2M) – Washington get a home game against the Kyle Pitts-less Falcons this weekend. Much like last weekend, this a game they could control with their strong defence and have plenty of opportunities to run the ball. Gibson looks far more explosive than Brian Robinson and their carry numbers seem be fairly level. Gibson also has the benefit of being the preferred receiving back.
  • Rachaad White (9.9M) – Rachaad White earned the starting role from Fournette last time out for the Bucs and impressed against the Seahawks in Germany. Coming off the bye week the Bucanneers get the Browns who are among the worst run defending teams in the league. White’s is a 2.5M discount on Fournette and whilst he may trail in pass game usage, he does have more big play potential.
  • Samaje Perine (9.2M) – Perine is purely a better on volume, with Joe Mixon set to miss week 12 with a concussion. He gets an awful match-up against a very strong Titans run defence, but may be able to make up for it at this price point with some work in the passing game.
Wide Receivers
  • Treylon Burks (9.4M) – Burks has looked very impressive since returning from injury in week 10 including catching 7 for 111 yards last week against the Packers. He may not be a full-time player yet but he his running routes on around 2/3rds of dropbacks and has the explosiveness to make the most of his chances. Against the Bengals high-powered passing attack, the Titans may need Burks to keep up this week.
  • Drake London (9.3M) – As we mentioned above, the Falcons are without star tight-end Kyle Pitts for the rest season. Drake London is left as the only real threat in the passing game for a team determined to run the ball. So, whilst the number of passing plays may not be high, London should be a target hog on the most talent deficient offence in the NFL.
  • Chris Olave (12.4M) – Olave rounds off a trio of rookie wide receivers. The 49ers aren’t the best match-up for Olave, but neither were the LA Rams last week and Olave put up 21.20 points. His passing volume and quality of targets makes him match-up proof and the return of Jarvis Landry should only help to take defensive attention away from him.
Tight Ends
  • Greg Dulcich (8.8M) – Dulcich was my pick last week and after a 4 for 30 yards performance against the Raiders, he is back at a lower price this week. Jerry Jeudy will be out again this week with an ankle injury making Dulcich and Sutton the two clear top targets for Russell Wilson. There is potential against a shaky Panthers pass-defence, but it may be wiser to stump up for one of the top Tight Ends this week.
Defence/Special Teams

This week the Jets (10.0M), Dolphins (10.3M) and Broncos (9.9M) all face QBs making their first start of the season and rightly rank in the top 4 defences on the slate, the Broncos in particular are a strong choice. At the lower price range, the Panthers (8.2M) against a Broncos defence that couldn’t take advantage of an awful Raiders defence at home last week.

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