NFL DFS Week 11 Recap

I didn’t get an opportunity to post my line-up before the games this week, and unfortunately it didn’t end up in the money regardless. But, I’m still going to run through how it performed and see what lessons we can take into next weeks attempt at reaching the money!

I started the line-up off with a bet on Justin Fields continuing the great form he’s shown in weeks 9 and 10. The Atlanta defence has been pretty awful this season, so it seemed a good bet. I paired him with his WR1, Darnell Mooney, who has the speed to be a threat to score on any play.

It was a solid showing from the pair, but a case of what could have been. Mooney caught one touchdown from Fields and was inches away from catching what would have been a 66 yard TD. Fields also played through a shoulder injury which may have capped his rushing upside.

I spent a big chunk of the budget on Stefon Diggs, whose match-up against the Browns looked pretty good on paper. He was bizarrely without a target until inside the final 2 minutes of the first half. He caught that one for a TD and added three more catches after half-time for a total of 48 yards. The Bills didn’t need Diggs much against the Browns as they cruised to a 31-23 win.

Next up a wide receiver, I took Darius Slayton in a plus match-up at home against the Detroit Lions’ awful defence. He earned a fantastic 10 targets, but only caught half of them for 85 scoreless yards. It was surprisingly bad day overall for the Giants offence who managed just 18 points in a great matchup on paper.

I rounded off the wide receivers with Courtland Sutton, gambling on a huge workload with Jerry Jeudy out. The Raiders at home also looked like a solid match-up for a struggling Russell Wilson, but the Broncos managed just 16 points. For Sutton, he lead the team in target with 7 catching 5 for 80 yards and drawing a pass interference call on another. Sadly, with no touchdown it wasn’t to be the big day we needed.

At tight-end I went with the top option in Mark Andrews. Andrews returned from injury to face a Panthers defence that has struggled for the most part this season. Andrew caught 6 of 8 targets, but struggled to 63 yards with a long catch of just 16 yards. Andrews didn’t see his usual red-zone target volume as the Ravens offence struggled all game, scoring just one touchdown.

My first choice at running-back was Rhamondre Stevenson for the Patriots. Stevenson has a great receiving floor and had taken the lead role on the ground from Damien Harris to boot. Stevenson caught 6 passes and managed 82 yards from scrimmage. The Patriots-Jets game was dire watching with the only touchdown coming on a punt return in the closing seconds of the game.

My second running-back was Brian Robinson of the Commanders. In this case I was looking at a Commanders team with the potential to take an early lead against the Texans and run heavily. If all went right, there was a path to Robinson scoring multiple touchdowns. The Commanders did take an early lead they would never give up, but the workload in the backfield evened out. Robinson managed 15 carries for 57 yards, with his teammate Antonio Gibson managing 18 carries.

Finally, on defence I took the New York Giants. The Lions have been high scoring at home all season, but have had some shocking away performances including getting shut-out by the Patriots back in week 5. The Giants have been solid at home allowing 20 or less points in 4 of 5 games heading into this week. This week was their worst performance of the year, home or away, giving up 31 points.

Overall, the team earned 108.12 points finishing in 568th out of 1484 entries. 14.48 points away from the money.

Final Thoughts

This week feels like we were on the right path in a lot of cases, but the execution just didn’t come off. Between Slayton and Sutton, we got the volume we wanted from two budget receivers on other day either could have added a touch down or two to make this a bigger day.

With Robinson, we got the game script right for the Commanders but an increased share of the carries from Gibson and a lack of TDs prevented the big score.

I like the thinking behind picking the Giants defence, but obviously the results were awful. With Mark Andrews, we maybe should have been more cautious of a player limited in practice during the week in his return from injury.

Perhaps most obviously, if Mooney and Fields connect on the long touchdown it scores 20 points combined and we make the money.

We’ll return later in the week to cover some early thoughts on the Week 12 schedule. To make sure you see when the post goes live follow me on twitter @ThinkingFantasy

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